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How does crime news shape what people fear, and what they support?

Fear-framed crime stories raise how common people think crime is and their support for punishment, while stories about flaws in the system raise support for reform; the effect depends on the platform and the audience.

A.V., CUNY Graduate Center

ActivePersuasion
Media framingPublic opinionCriminal justice

Hypotheses.

What the paper argues, written so it can be tested.

  1. H1

    People who watch more fear-framed crime coverage, like TV news and crime reality shows, overestimate how much crime there is and pick punishment over rehabilitation more often.

  2. H2

    Stories that show flaws in the justice system and ask people to empathize with someone inside it raise support for rehabilitation and restorative justice, and the size of both effects depends on the platform and the audience.

The model.

Two frames for the same crime. A fear frame raises perceived crime and stigma, which raise support for punishment. A system frame raises empathy and understanding, which raise support for reform. The platform and the audience set how strong each path is.

THE STORYTHE FRAMEWHAT PEOPLE BELIEVEWHAT THEY BACKCrime storyOne eventFear frameViolence and alarmPerceived crimeand stigmaPunishmentTough on crimeSystem frameFlaws and peopleEmpathyand understandingReformRehabilitationSHAPED BYThe platform, TV or internet, and theaudience’s politics and where they live
Crime storyFear frameRising alarmMore fearand stigmaPunishmentTough on crimeSystem frameFlaws and peopleMore empathyfor the peopleReformRehabilitationSHAPED BYThe platform, TV or internet, andthe audience’s politics and place
Drawn from the paper. Dashed lines show what the model predicts.

Partial abstract.

How news and social media frame crime, from fear appeals to the stigma around mental illness and race. The paper proposes that fear frames push audiences toward punitive policy, and that sympathetic or system-focused frames open room for rehabilitation and restorative reform.

Media Messaging and Public Perception of Crime: Misrepresentations and Pathways to Reform

Key sources

  • Gerbner, G. (1998). Cultivation analysis: An overview.
  • Callanan, V. J., and Rosenberger, J. S. (2011). The influence of media on penal attitudes.
  • Mutz, D. C., and Nir, L. (2010). Not necessarily the news: Does fictional television influence real-world policy preferences?

How we’ll test it.

No results yet. This is the plan: the data, the measure, and what would count as support.

Awaiting data

The data

Surveys that pair each person’s media diet, by platform and type of show, with their crime estimates and policy views, plus an experiment that shows people one story in a fear frame or a system frame.

The measure

How far each person’s sense of the crime trend sits from official rates, the sentencing goal they choose, and their support for reform policies.

What would count as support

Fear-framed exposure predicts higher crime estimates and more support for punishment, the system frame moves people toward reform, and both effects change size across platforms and audiences.

How it connects to Pulp.

Radiance measures references and persuasive force.

Continues as a special project: Criminal representations in media

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